Economists predict it will take more than 25 years for Nigeria to double its production

Economists have speculated that at the current growth rate, Nigeria would take more than 25 years to double the size of its economy, while it took nine years to achieve the same between 1999 and 2007, at an average growth of 7.7 percent.

Specifically, Nigeria’s growth rate slowed to six percent between 2008 and 2015 and fell to an average of 2.86 percent between 2015 and 2023.

Taking into account some key macroeconomic indicators, the economists argued that the Nigerian economy has performed worse in recent years and its growth has become one of the slowest in Africa.

In historical comparison, Nigeria’s per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in 1960 was US$223.53, which was twice that of China and higher than that of India and Kenya.

However, they stressed that Nigeria will perform worse in 2023 compared to the global average and those of its peer countries.

They argued that Nigeria’s GDP in 2023 was just 1.0 percent of the global average and Nigeria’s GDP, which was twice that of China in 1960, was just 7 percent of China’s GDP per capita in 2023.

While China is now the world’s second largest economy, India is the fifth largest and Nigeria is the world’s 43rd largest economy in 2024.

Guest speaker and President of the Nigerian Economic Society (NES), Prof. Adeola Adenikinju, who spoke at the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) 2024 Fellowship on “Maximizing the Potential of the Nigerian Economy: Policy Options, Challenges and Prospects,” Investiture pointed out pointed out that Nigeria must make more optimal and conscious use of its enormous untapped potential if it wants to regain its lost position.

He, however, noted that the Nigerian economy is a major player on the African continent, accounting for over a fifth of sub-Saharan Africa’s economy. However, he pointed out that several constraints of macroeconomic instability such as weak growth, high inflation and unstable exchange rate contributed to hindered the country’s economic performance.

Other constraints, according to Adenikinju, include high budget deficits, debt service obligations, weak institutions, poor governance and corruption, and a huge infrastructure deficit.

On policy options for Nigeria to realize its potential and achieve the growth target of a US$1 trillion economy by 2030, the NES boss said targeted policy measures were needed to address the challenges, stating that infrastructure, Governance and human capital reforms are critical to unlocking long-term growth.

He explained that the country needs to protect the middle class, which is crucial to economic growth and livelihoods, saying current government policies are likely to shrink it.

The economist noted that to realize Nigeria’s potential, the country must focus on three critical policy priorities: intellectual, infrastructural and institutional development.

He said as global economic dynamics evolve, the future of the Nigerian economy could be one of increased volatility and complexity: “However, the outcomes will depend on our collective actions and inactions as professionals and as a nation.” Associations such as the CIBN and the NES must remain active and involved in the political process. Policymakers must remain adaptable and take into account emerging geopolitical and domestic trends that could impact the country’s development. Coordinated efforts between government, private sector and international partners are critical to maximizing economic opportunities.”

The special guest of honor, Nasarawa State Governor Abdullahi Sule, highlighted the well-thought-out policies to address the country’s economic challenges.

He urged that banks and the government must work together to address exchange rate challenges and undertake policy reforms to facilitate lending to the real sector for economic growth.

He mentioned how his state improved its revenue by combating illegal mining through the Executive Order and challenges in agriculture and also established institutes for skill acquisition.

All this, Sule said, paved the way for improved IGR of the state without borrowing from banks.

The event Chairperson and Group Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of Emzor Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, Dr. Stella Okoli, sought the contribution of all key stakeholders to restore the country to its rightful place.

She remembered the early years when the British came to Nigeria to study medicine and other related courses; However, she complained that the opposite was now the case.

Arguing that the past is good and nothing should be allowed to change, the Emzor boss called for policy options that would make Nigeria great again and also give the youths the necessary support and recognition after their immense contributions so that they can use their quota sensibly Nigerian economy can contribute to economies worldwide.

The President/Chairman of the Council of CIBN, Prof. Pius Olanrewaju, said Nigeria with its huge population could be the next success story and a shining beacon for the African economy by capitalizing on its opportunities and addressing the challenges associated with it to unlock economic potential and achieve sustainable growth.

Noting that Nigeria is a vibrant and dynamic nation that undoubtedly has the potential to emerge as an economic power, but this could be achieved by emulating the success stories of other developing countries and implementing their effective strategies.

According to him, countries like Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and India once faced similar challenges but successfully forged their path to prosperity.

The countries, said the CIBN chief, invested heavily in education, infrastructure development and economic diversification, while also facilitating trade and encouraging foreign direct investment. The overall effect of the individual measures has paid off, said the CIBN boss.

As professional bankers, Olanrewaju added, they are expected to work with the government and other stakeholders to ensure that Nigeria’s potential is efficiently realized.